2024 Recycling Markets: A Year in Review

Recycling markets - they go up, they go down - driven by economic, environmental, local, and global factors. But how did the markets do this year? Let's take a look! 

At NRRA’s Annual Meeting in November 2024, Brian Patnoe, NRRA Member Services Director, shared several graphs to demonstrate trends in market pricing for paper and cardboard, plastics, and metals over the past year, with some comparisons going back as far as a decade. A picture is worth a thousand words, and these pricing charts show that despite some recent dips in market pricing, overall recycling commodity markets are either similar to or higher than a year ago. 

Some of the key highlights include the following:

• Fibers (paper & cardboard): Cardboard maintained its pricing over the year and paper saw an increase. Both cardboard and paper were either the same or just slightly lower than their prices 10 years ago, though much has happened in the interim!
  
  

• Plastics: Pricing has increased across all plastics groups - PET, HDPE Natural, HDPE Colored, and even #1-#7 Mixed Plastics. 
  
  

• Metals: Light iron pricing is up significantly from last year, aluminum can pricing has remained strong, and steel can pricing has also increased slightly.

Combined pricing of standard recyclables over the past 10 years. You can see the impact of the National Sword policy and the Covid pandemic. 

 Fibers - Paper & Cardboard

So what's happening with fibers? Well, this is an adjustment NRRA has been expecting since the spring. There is the usual slow down with mill downtime in the fall (happens every year). In general, the demand for boxes is down across the US, so less recycled materials are needed. Finally, with the brief port shutdown earlier in the year, mills stocked up on material anticipating a longer shut down, so when the port opened after a day, mills were overstocked and unable to take on more material. Especially tough in November, we are happy to report that we are finally seeing more movement of fiber bales. 

Plastics 

Here's a 10-year look at prices of HDPE Natural (yellow), HDPE Color (red), and PET (green). You'll notice the Covid bump, crash, and current rebound. 

So what's happening with plastics? Last year in 2023 we saw record construction since the 2007 recession. That cooled in 2024 with an 11% decrease in housing construction breaking down into a 4.7% decrease in single family homes and 16% decrease in apartment buildings of 5+ housing units being built. Preliminary reports are anticipating an increase in smaller, more affordable single homes in 2025. 

But why does construction impact the plastics market? Well, it's because recycled plastics become many things you'll find in new homes! PET is recycled into carpeting, HDPE is recycled into piping and appliances, and PP (polypropylene) is also recycled into appliances.

Metals

Here's a 10-year look at prices of Light Iron (red), Steel Cans (green), and Aluminum Cans (yellow). 

Similar to the plastics market, the metals market has been affected by cooling housing construction. However, there are opportunities for recycled metals in the automotive industry - especially with consumer interest in electric vehicles. Right now, we anticipate a continued moderate increase in 2025.